Merit Order power pricing, bi-directional power charging and discharging.
Valero and LONGi are not only at the opposite spectrum of who is going to be powering transportation in the future but ALSO have an opposite set of circumstantial elements (the present) versus structural elements (the likely path in the future given the evolution of costs)
About electrification and Refractory Materials
BYD/CATL/Tesla built empires on LFP patents invalidated (basically stolen) in China. Michel Armand, who enabled China's LFP boom via nanocoating tech, now leads polymer solid-state battery development at Basquevolt (Europe) with ironclad global patents. Chinese giants locked out of next-gen tech. Tesla pivots to robotaxis/robots, unable to compete. Ford allies with Renault/Ampere for access. Chinese battery valuations face severe correction if they can’t find an answer quickly on solid state.
The text challenges three beliefs: rising gas prices, renewables increasing costs, and higher renewable penetration raising German prices. Data from Spain and Germany shows renewables lower prices via the merit-order effect. Germany is moving toward similar outcomes, aided by rapid storage expansion (batteries, sand, molten salt). Seasonal storage and low marginal costs reduce gas dependence, stabilize prices, and improve energy sovereignty, with full decoupling expected by 2027–2030.
Molten salt systems retrofit coal plants into thermal batteries: excess wind/solar heats salt, stored energy later drives turbines. Fuel is eliminated, costs shift to capex, and long-duration storage (days–weeks) becomes cheap. This “Carnot battery” model undercuts gas by absorbing surplus and serving peaks, turning coal assets into dispatchable, fuel-free power hubs.
ECB critics misread inflation: echoing Henry Thornton, supply shocks (like energy or bad harvests) create temporary imbalances, not monetary excess. Raising rates won’t fix supply and can worsen it by choking credit and slowing adjustment (e.g. renewables). The right response is real-side adjustment, not tightening, especially with cartelized energy prices.
From the 17th century, Caribbean sugar fueled European wealth via plantations reliant on enslaved labor. Napoleonic Wars, slave revolts, and embargoes disrupted trade, while Europe’s sugar beet offered a cheaper, local alternative. Similarly, today EVs, renewables, and local energy reduce dependence on oil and natural gas, slashing costs and reshaping global energy markets—history repeating itself in technological disruption.