War Is Not Deflationary — Ever
Wars are not deflationary, especially for the U.S., where high debt and deficit monetization create inflationary pressures. Bond rallies during crises are often knee-jerk reactions, not true signals. With heavy short-term issuance, repo stress, and structural deficits, markets may misread conditions. If conflict persists, risks shift toward inflation and potential instability in the U.S. bond market.
CONNECTING THE DOTS: NIIC position, US reliance on external capital, Renewable energy hostility from Mr. Trump, And the bond market.
"US NIIC deficit worsens as renewables threaten petrodollar demand. Why Trump's anti-EV stance links to foreign capital dependency. Data-driven analysis.