The Genoa system of 1922 transformed trade deficits by allowing USD and GBP to be held as reserves and recycled into debtor-country debt, delaying the credit tightening that gold outflows once imposed. Jacques Rueff called this a “deficit without tears.” Today, Japan’s reserve drawdowns and China’s preference for gold over U.S. Treasuries are reversing that process, transmitting trade imbalances back into the U.S. credit structure through higher rates, duration pressure, and a weaker dollar.
Wars are not deflationary, especially for the U.S., where high debt and deficit monetization create inflationary pressures. Bond rallies during crises are often knee-jerk reactions, not true signals. With heavy short-term issuance, repo stress, and structural deficits, markets may misread conditions. If conflict persists, risks shift toward inflation and potential instability in the U.S. bond market.
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