War, Energy Prices, and Expected “Unexpected” Consequences

The Acceleration of Energy Transition Through Crisis

What I find interesting is that the Russian war resulted in a large spike in oil and gas prices, but also triggered a massive adoption of EVs and a shrinking share of fossil fuels in the electricity mix across Europe, China, and Australia.

Basically, this is sowing the seeds of accelerated substitution in a context of plunging cost curves in solar, wind, and grid battery costs.

And somehow, some people on fintweet expect different results this time.

The Einstein Test

Albert Einstein famously called “repeating the same experiment and expecting a different result each time” insanity.

Yet when geopolitical conflicts drive up fossil fuel prices, the market response has been remarkably consistent: accelerated adoption of alternatives.

The Evidence: EV Adoption Curves Since

So another spike in fossil fuels?

MOAR demand destruction in ICE cars and new power fossil fuel plants.

Sorry I will decline being called “insane”, I won’t expect a different result this time.