Solid-state batteries may disrupt lithium-ion more than markets price in. They use lithium-metal anodes and solid electrolytes, boosting energy density, safety, range, and charging speed. But success depends less on chemistry than new manufacturing: continuous ceramic or roll-press processes, not legacy liquid-electrolyte lines. The thesis argues incumbents like CATL face retrofit and scale hurdles, while Honda and QuantumScape may hold undervalued final-size production advantages.
ECB critics misread inflation: echoing Henry Thornton, supply shocks (like energy or bad harvests) create temporary imbalances, not monetary excess. Raising rates won’t fix supply and can worsen it by choking credit and slowing adjustment (e.g. renewables). The right response is real-side adjustment, not tightening, especially with cartelized energy prices.
Rising geopolitical tensions may weaken dollar recycling as Gulf states deepen ties with Beijing, keeping base rates higher. This comes as private credit—now a key absorber of capital—shows growing stress. Higher funding costs, redemption limits, and valuation gaps in BDCs signal the credit cycle is turning. With inflows slowing and capital absorption weakening, the system is entering a late-cycle phase where credit expansion stalls and pricing begins shifting from models to market reality.
Remember how oil interests lobbied against nuclear during the 1970s embargo, and now push against solar and wind? Oil lost electricity; now natural gas faces the same threat. Nuclear acts as a decoy—baseload, expensive, and not flexible. Wind, solar, and EVs disrupt variable demand and transport. Energy transitions repeat: oil → electricity, gas → electricity, oil → transport. RINSE / REPEAT.